Rules-Based International Order & The American Hegemon
He who has the power makes the rules
From time to time, the mask slips and the broader public catches a glimpse into the inner machinations of the Global American Hegemon. This can be a striking blow to the ideals and platitudes usually presented as representation of the Liberal international order.
To many, the story told on the processes put in place post-WWII for global international relations follows a well-worn tale. The United Nations is a benevolent political body that cooperates to prevent future wars, advance development in lesser countries, and generally act as an arbiter for disputes amongst one another. And yes, this is still a function of the UN, although the results and outcomes have a spotty historical record. Think Rwanda, Haiti, Sudan, etc.
Last week, president-elect Donald Trump held a press conference at Mar-A-Lago in his usual free-wheeling style, covering topics about his incoming administration. From proposed new business investments in technology and energy extraction, to the various situations around the globe that his presidency will be engaged with. But it was Trump’s comments on foreign policy, specifically regarding the acquisition of Greenland, and the operational control of the Panama Canal that caused the most uproar. A reporter asked if Trump could give assurances to the world that America would not use coercive military or economic tactics to acquire Greenland and his response was candidly blunt:
“No, I can’t assure you on either of those two.”
The reaction from Liberal media was swift and unsurprising, with a number of responses and opinions equating the ideas to the usual boogeyman ideas of imperialism, colonialism, and, of course, accusations of Trump utilizing the “Mad Man” political strategy.
Donald Trump’s 21st-Century Colonialism {The Nation}
The real danger of Trump’s Greenland gambit {Vox}
‘Here We Go Again’: Trump’s Territorial Ambitions Rattle a Weary World {NYT}
Reality
While the concepts of the Monroe Doctrine and spheres of influence have been mostly thought to be historical relics of the past, their demise has been greatly exaggerated.
This post on 𝕏 from Russians With Attitude captured the essence of what living as a vassal of the American Empire entails, and how the 21st century will likely generate more and more of these mask off moments.
The incoming administration seems to have a more realistic image of the state of American hegemonial decline and wants to take proactive steps to try to counteract and reverse it, breathing new life into the American Global Empire.
In this context, it makes perfect sense for the US to increase pressure on its vassals. I am not using the term in a pejorative sense. The US does not have “allies” in the traditional meaning of the word. It has vassals with different levels of feudal obligations and elite integration, and different tasks. Extracting more value from vassals -- whether through tariffs, increased NATO budgets, meddling in local politics or potential territorial concessions -- is an absolutely logical step in cementing and renewing America's position as overlord of its sphere.
There are three ways America's European vassals can react to this: look for protection outside of the sphere, try to make themselves more useful/necessary & advance integration, or take it on the face. Were we in, I don't know, the 19th century, Denmark would just ask Russia for military support in Greenland in exchange for mild economic concessions and never worry again. As it is, the Royal Danish Army does not have any artillery anymore because they gave it all away for the purpose of firing cluster ammunition at Russian children in Donetsk. They did not receive anything in return for that and it did not help any Danish purpose. They cannot defend themselves if push comes to shove and they can't ask anybody to help because most of their fellow vassals have done the same. The most likely option is that they'll just take it on the face. Not just for pragmatic reasons, but also because they genuinely enjoy being dommed geopolitically.
America has no obligation to treat its vassals better. I've seen Danish people complain on here about supporting the US after 9/11, participating in the American wars in the Middle East, etc. That's ridiculous. You know how a colony is rewarded for sending troops to its overlord's wars? It doesn't get beaten. That's the reward for a lackey. Any person who takes any of the NATO democracy liberalism pilpul seriously is just not a serious person, it was never real, it was always just voluntary submission to be absolved from existing in History.
The world that existed in 1991-2022 does not exist anymore. It's not coming back. You can just invade your neighbor. You can just fire missiles at international shipping lanes. You can just threaten to annex members of your military alliance. “You can just do things”, as the tech bros like to say. The mirage of a post-historical order that only has to be policed from time to time but is never seriously challenged has disappeared. What did you think canceling the End of History meant? Vibes? Papers? Essays?
It's not pleasant to be suddenly confronted with all of the above. It's not pleasant to have to admit to yourself that your existence was a coddled theme park that is existentially dependent on the relative position of someone else and how he feels about that relative position. America's vassals WILL have to confront this state of things and make hard decisions about their future. This means reckoning with their geopolitical impotence and either embracing dependency with open eyes or seeking pathways to autonomy that will inevitably involve risk, sacrifice, and a recalibration of their national priorities.
The era of coasting on borrowed security and ideological rhetoric is over. What lies ahead is a world where historical agency must be reclaimed or forever relinquished, and for many, the question may not be whether they are ready to make that leap, but whether they even remember how. America has now understood this -- and is mentally preparing to switch back to the cold logic that comes with actual History. The times, they are a-changin'.
As the world continues its development into a multipolar system; think of BRICs rapid ascension for example, a realist order1 where America asserts her position over vassal states and institutions will continue. The soft power of diplomacy and backroom deals will continue, just do not be surprised to see the hard whip of control and American authority make more public appearances.
Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order (Mearsheimer) Excellent paper describing the types of orders that can arise globally. Realist order is what can be expected when there are numerous great powers.